Monday, May 02, 2005

Polls on Democratic Control in '06:
And the Fallacy of the Values Voters bloc

Latest polling bodes well for the Democrats in 2006. When asked who people would plan to vote for in '06, every poll showed Dems leading the Republicans.
  • Americans United to Protect Social Security had Dems leading 35% to 28
  • Democracy Corps Poll had Dems leading 47% to 42%
  • Moore Information had Dems leading 37% to 33%
  • George Washington University Battleground Poll had Dems leading 44% to 41%
  • National Public Radio Poll had Dems leading 42% to 36%
  • Ipsos Public Affairs Poll had dems leading 51% to 44%

This must be making Republicans very nervous.
How many Republicans really want to push the nuclear option only to find it will be the Dems who will end up "with their finger on the button" so to speak? How many want to support Bush's lame duck SS plan which the American people do not support?

I predict the 2006 election will blow open the fallacy of the values voting bloc. A lazy and neglectful press has given us this notion of the great bloc of values voters out there just waiting to vote out liberal Democrats and vote in more conservative Republicans . However Polling consistently shows Americans top concerns are the following 4 issues (ranking varies by poll):
War in Iraq
The Economy
Health Care
I think it is really simple.......Americans see the Republicans making no headway on their concerns and hence are going to look to the Dems in '06. The Republicans jumped on the "values vote" like CNN jumps on a woman" gone bad" story. My hope is both will end up with the deserved egg on their face when American vote in '06. And these polls show the chances of that hope coming true, as very good.

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